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What to Look for in a Futures Contract?
Stop Orders A stop order is an order, placed with your broker, to buy or sell a particular futures contract at the market price if and when the price reaches a specified level. Stop orders are often used by futures traders in an effort to limit the amount they. might lose if the futures price moves against their position. For example, were you to purchase a crude oil futures contract at $21.00 a barrel and wished to limit your loss to $1.00 a barrel, you might place a stop order to sell an off-setting contract if the price should fall to, say, $20.00 a barrel. If and when the market reaches whatever price you specify, a stop order becomes an order to execute the desired trade at the best price immediately obtainable. There can be no guarantee, however, that it will be possible under all market conditions to execute the order at the price specified. In an active, volatile market, the market price may be declining (or rising) so rapidly that there is no opportunity to liquidate your position at the stop price you have designated. Under these circumstances, the broker's only obligation is to execute your order at the best price that is available. In the event that prices have risen or fallen by the maximum daily limit, and there is presently no trading in the contract (known as a "lock limit" market), it may not be possible to execute your order at any price.
In addition, although it happens infrequently, it is possible that markets may be lock limit for more than one day, resulting in substantial losses to futures traders who may find it impossible to liquidate losing futures positions. Subject to the kinds of limitations just discussed, stop orders can nonetheless provide a useful tool for the futures trader who seeks to limit his losses. Far more often than not, it will be possible. for the broker to execute a stop order at or near the specified price. In addition to providing a way to limit losses, stop orders can also be employed to protect profits. For instance, if you have bought crude oil futures at $21.00 a barrel and the price is now at $24.00 a barrel, you might wish to place a stop order to sell if and when the price declines to $23.00. This (again subject to the described limitations of stop orders) could protect $2.00 of your existing $3.00 profit while still allowing you to benefit from any continued increase in price.  Spreads involve the purchase of one futures contract and the sale of a different futures contract in the hope of profiting from a widening or narrowing of the price difference. Because gains and losses occur only as the result of a change in the price difference--rather than as a result of a change in the overall level of futures prices--spreads are often considered more conservative and less risky than having an outright long or short futures position. In general, this may be the case. It should be recognized, though, that the loss from a spread can be as great as--or even greater than--that which might be incurred in having an outright futures position. An adverse widening or narrowing of the spread during a particular time period may exceed the change in the overall level of futures prices, and it is possible to experience losses on both of the futures contracts involved (that is, on both legs of the spread). What are known as put and call options are being traded on a growing number of futures contracts. The principal attraction of buying options is that they make it possible to speculate on increasing or decreasing futures prices with a known and limited risk. The most that the buyer of an option can lose is the cost of purchasing the option (known as the option "premium") plus transaction costs. Options can be most easily understood when call options and put options are considered separately, since, in fact, they are totally separate and distinct. Buying or selling a call in no way involves a put, and buying or selling a put in no way involves a call.
The buyer of a call option acquires the right but not the obligation to purchase (go long) a particular futures contract at a specified price at any time during the life of the option. Each option specifies the futures contract which may be purchased (known as the "underlying" futures contract) and the price at which it can be purchased (known as the "exercise" or "strike" price). A March Treasury bond 84 call option would convey the right to buy one March U.S. Treasury bond futures contract at a price of $84,000 at any time during the life of the option. One reason for buying call options is to profit from an anticipated increase in the underlying futures price. A call option buyer will realize a net profit if, upon exercise, the underlying futures price is above the option exercise price by more than the premium paid for the option. Or a profit can be realized it, prior to expiration, the option rights can be sold for more than they cost. Example: You expect lower interest rates to result in higher bond prices (interest rates and bond prices move inversely). To profit if you are right, you buy a June T-bond 82 call. Assume the premium you pay is $2,000. If, at the expiration of the option (in May) the June T-bond futures price is 88, you can realize a gain of 6 (that's $6,000) by exercising or selling the option that was purchased at 82. Since you paid $2,000 for the option, your net profit is $4,000 less transaction costs. As mentioned, the most that an option buyer can lose is the option premium plus transaction costs. Thus, in the preceding example, the most you could have lost--no matter how wrong you might have been about the direction and timing of interest rates and bond prices--would have been the $2,000 premium you paid for the option plus transaction costs. In contrast if you had an outright long position in the underlying futures contract, your potential loss would be unlimited. It should be pointed out, however, that while an option buyer has a limited risk (the loss of the option premium), his profit potential is reduced by the amount of the premium. In the example, the option buyer realized a net profit of $4,000. For someone with an outright long position in the June T-bond futures contract, an increase in the futures price from 82 to 88 would have yielded a net profit of $6,000 less transaction costs. Although an option buyer cannot lose more than the premium paid for the option, he can lose the entire amount of the premium. This will be the case if an option held until expiration is not worthwhile to exercise. Whereas a call option conveys the right to purchase (go long) a particular futures contract at a specified price, a put option conveys the right to sell (go short) a particular futures contract at a specified price. Put options can be purchased to profit from an anticipated price decrease. As in the case of call options, the most that a put option buyer can lose, if he is wrong about the direction or timing of the price change, is the option premium plus transaction costs. Example: Expecting a decline in the price of gold, you pay a premium of $1,000 to purchase an October 320 gold put option. The option gives you the right to sell a 100 ounce gold futures contract for $320 an ounce. Assume that, at expiration, the October futures price has--as you expected-declined to $290 an ounce. The option giving you the right to sell at $320 can thus be sold or exercised at a gain of $30 an ounce. On 100 ounces, that's $3,000. After subtracting $1,000 paid for the option, your net profit comes to $2,000. Had you been wrong about the direction or timing of a change in the gold futures price, the most you could have lost would have been the $1,000 premium paid for the option plus transaction costs. However, you could have lost the entire premium. How Option Premiums are Determined Option premiums are determined the same way futures prices are determined, through active competition between buyers and sellers. Three major variables influence the premium for a given option: * The option's exercise price, or, more specifically, the relationship between the exercise price and the current price of the underlying futures contract. All else being equal, an option that is already worthwhile to exercise (known as an "in-the-money" option) commands a higher premium than an option that is not yet worthwhile to exercise (an "out-of-the-money" option). For example, if a gold contract is currently selling at $295 an ounce, a put option conveying the right to sell gold at $320 an ounce is more valuable than a put option that conveys the right to sell gold at only $300 an ounce. * The length of time remaining until expiration. All else being equal, an option with a long period of time remaining until expiration commands a higher premium than an option with a short period of time remaining until expiration because it has more time in which to become profitable. Said another way, an option is an eroding asset. Its time value declines as it approaches expiration. * The volatility of the underlying futures contract. All rise being equal, the greater the volatility the higher the option premium. In a volatile market, the option stands a greater chance of becoming profitable to exercise.
Selling Options
Reward Risk An option writer's maximum profit is premium received for writing the option An option writer's loss is unlimited. Except for the premium received, risk is the same as having an outright position in the underlying futures contract. |
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